US-China Trade: Washington Presses Beijing on Soybean Purchases Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks

The Trump administration urged China on Friday to fulfill its agricultural trade commitments after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

The demand comes ahead of expected meetings between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping and could affect U.S. soybean exports, commodity prices and farm incomes. Washington wants Beijing to deliver measurable results under the 2025 Busan trade agreement, particularly on agricultural purchases, rare earths and critical minerals.

According to Reuters, U.S. officials are increasingly concerned about China’s implementation of the agreement. Beijing committed to purchasing 25 million metric tons of American soybeans annually through 2028, alongside additional agricultural products valued at approximately $17 billion per year. However, the timing and execution of those commitments remain disputed. For U.S. farmers, actual shipments rather than diplomatic announcements will determine whether the agreement strengthens export demand and improves market conditions.

Recent trade figures highlight the challenges. Reuters reported that China purchased only $7.2 billion in U.S. agricultural products excluding soybeans between January and September 2026, the lowest level for that period since 2019. Meanwhile, Chinese customs data showed U.S. soybean shipments to China reached 11.06 million metric tons during the first nine months of 2026, down 34% year over year. Brazil supplied 65.84 million metric tons, reinforcing its competitive position in the world’s largest soybean import market.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected Chinese soybean imports at 110 million metric tons for the 2026/27 marketing year, underscoring the country’s importance to global oilseed markets. However, a 10% Chinese retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans continues to favor South American suppliers in commercial transactions. Although Chinese state-owned companies have maintained purchases under the trade arrangement, American exporters still face competitive disadvantages linked to tariffs, freight costs and international pricing.

Tariff Negotiations Could Shape U.S. Farm Markets

China has linked additional agricultural purchases to reciprocal tariff reductions. Its Commerce Ministry indicated that Beijing remains willing to expand imports if both countries implement their proposed concessions. Negotiators previously discussed approximately $60 billion in reciprocal tariff cuts, but the package has not been finalized. This uncertainty complicates trade planning for U.S. farmers, grain exporters and agricultural co-ops, particularly as producers prepare marketing strategies and financial decisions for the 2027 crop year.

For American soybean growers, stronger Chinese demand could support export sales, local basis levels and farmgate prices. However, global soybean supplies, Brazilian competition, input costs and transportation expenses will continue influencing profitability. The consequences also extend to grain elevators, logistics companies and livestock producers exposed to soybean meal prices. Crop insurance and farm bill programs remain important tools for managing financial risks, but stable international market access is essential for long-term agricultural competitiveness.

Trump and Xi are expected to meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19 and potentially again during the G20 summit in Miami on December 14-15. With the current trade arrangement reportedly expiring on January 10, 2027, agricultural markets will closely monitor tariff decisions, USDA export sales reports and confirmed Chinese purchases. For U.S. agriculture, the key question is whether Beijing’s commitments will translate into sustained demand and stronger export opportunities, rather than temporary relief driven by political negotiations.

Source: Agrolatam