HSBC expects gold’s ‘bull wave’ to hit US$5,000/oz in 2026.

“The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher for 1H’26 and we could very well reach a high of US$5,000/oz some time in 1H 2026,” HSBC said in a research note.

HSBC also raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to US$3,455 per ounce from US$3,355 previously. It increased its 2026 average gold price forecast to US$4,600, up from its previous estimate of US$3,950.

The bank cited geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty and rising public debt as factors supporting the price.

HSBC said that, given the sharp rise in prices during the second half of 2025 and heightened risks from new market entrants, it expects gold prices to remain elevated and potentially spike further through early 2026.

But the bank also expects significant volatility and some price moderation in the second half of 2026.

“Unlike previous rallies we believe many of these new buyers are likely stay in the gold space — even after the rally ends — not so much for appreciation necessarily as for gold’s diversification and ‘safe haven’ qualities,” the bank said.

HSBC joins analysts at the Bank of America and Societe Generale, who earlier in the week forecast that gold could reach US$5,000 an ounce in 2026.

Source: Theedgemalaysia